BERLIN – A new wave of political volatility has gripped Germany as the latest public opinion data reveals a staggering collapse in support for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the traditional political establishment. According to the most recent survey conducted by the INSA polling institute, a vast majority of the German electorate now views the head of government as unfit for his office, while the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) has climbed to unprecedented heights in national preference.
The findings, released on September 13, 2026, suggest a profound shift in the German political landscape, one that threatens the stability of the current governing structures and underscores a deep-seated disillusionment among voters. The data indicates that 78 percent of Germans now believe that Friedrich Merz is not the right person to hold the office of Chancellor. This figure represents a historic low for a sitting leader and highlights a rapid erosion of the mandate Merz secured when he took the helm of the federal government on May 6, 2025.
When Merz first assumed the Chancellorship, initial polling suggested a cautious but significant level of optimism, with his approval and confidence ratings hovering above 30 percent. However, in the sixteen months since his inauguration, that support has evaporated. Today, only 14 percent of the population considers him suitable for the role, while 8 percent of respondents remain undecided. Even within his own political camp, the numbers are cause for concern. Among voters of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), support for Merz remains at 58 percent, but a significant minority of 36 percent of the party’s own base believes he should no longer remain in office.
A Seismic Shift in Party Preferences
The dissatisfaction with the Chancellor is mirrored by a broader decline in the fortunes of Germany’s traditional "catch-all" parties. For nearly fifteen years, the CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) have been the twin pillars of German governance, often alternating as senior and junior partners in various coalitions. However, the INSA poll suggests that these parties are undergoing a systematic loss of support.
If a general election were held this weekend, the AfD would emerge as the strongest political force in the country, commanding 29 percent of the vote. This surge places the right-wing populists nearly ten points ahead of the CDU/CSU, which has slumped to 20 percent. The decline is even more pronounced for the SPD, the junior partner in the current power structure, which has fallen to just 13 percent. The Greens, who have also been a central fixture of recent ministerial cabinets, currently sit at 14 percent, while the Left Party (Die Linke) has seen a slight stabilization at 10 percent.
Perhaps most striking is the precarious position of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). The FDP, traditionally the kingmaker of German politics, is currently polling at 4 percent, while the BSW sits at 3 percent. Both parties are currently below the 5 percent electoral threshold required to enter the Bundestag, suggesting that the next parliament could be significantly less diverse in terms of party representation, even as it becomes more polarized.
The Arithmetic of the "Kenya Coalition"
The current polling data presents a complex mathematical puzzle for the formation of a stable government. The rise of the AfD to 29 percent creates a "firewall" dilemma that has come to define modern German parliamentary arithmetic. Because the CDU/CSU has maintained a strict policy of "no cooperation" with both the AfD and the Left Party, and because other mainstream parties have similarly ruled out any partnership with the far-right, the options for a majority government are severely limited.
Under the current projections, the only viable path to a majority would be the so-called "Kenya Coalition," named after the colors of the Kenyan flag: black (CDU/CSU), red (SPD), and green (The Greens). Despite their ideological differences and the fact that all three parties are currently hemorrhaging support, observers note that this remains the most likely—and perhaps only—mathematical possibility for a functioning government that excludes the fringes.
However, the viability of such a coalition is increasingly questioned by political analysts. With the three parties combined barely reaching 47 percent of the projected vote, a Kenya Coalition would possess a razor-thin majority and would be forced to govern a country where the largest single party, the AfD, sits in the opposition, potentially fueling further anti-establishment sentiment.
No Confidence in Merz
The personal unpopularity of Friedrich Merz has become a central theme in the national discourse. The INSA poll’s finding that 78 percent of the public views him as unsuitable for the Chancellorship is a sentiment that cuts across almost all demographic lines. While Merz was initially seen as a leader who could bring a more traditional, fiscally conservative approach back to the CDU after the centrist years of the Merkel era, his tenure has seemingly failed to resonate with a public grappling with economic uncertainty and social shifts.
The internal divide within the CDU/CSU is particularly telling. While 58 percent of Union voters still back their leader, the fact that more than a third of the party’s own supporters are dissatisfied suggests a brewing leadership crisis. This internal friction complicates the Chancellor’s ability to project strength on the international stage and to maintain discipline within his own legislative ranks.
The lack of confidence is not limited to the head of the government. The poll also took the temperature of the public regarding other key figures in the administration. Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, who also serves as the Co-Chair of the SPD, is facing his own crisis of legitimacy. According to the survey, 54 percent of Germans believe that Klingbeil is the "wrong name" for his leadership role within the SPD. Only 24 percent of respondents expressed support for him, while 25 percent declined to offer an opinion.
This dual crisis of leadership—affecting both the Chancellor and a key minister from the junior coalition partner—suggests a government that is struggling to maintain its footing. The SPD’s decline to 13 percent is particularly jarring for a party that has historically been one of the two dominant forces in the country. The dissatisfaction with Klingbeil indicates that the SPD’s base is just as restless as that of the CDU.
The Failure of the Fringes and the Threshold Challenge
While the AfD has successfully captured the protest vote, other smaller parties are struggling to survive. The FDP’s fall to 4 percent represents a potential existential crisis for the liberal party. Traditionally representing the interests of the middle class and the business community, the FDP appears to have been squeezed out by the polarization between the larger blocs and the populist surge.
Similarly, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which initially launched with significant media attention as a left-wing alternative with a restrictive view on migration, has failed to maintain its momentum. At 3 percent, it currently faces the prospect of being shut out of the federal parliament entirely. The failure of these parties to cross the 5 percent threshold means that millions of votes could potentially be "wasted" in a future election, further concentrating power among the remaining parties while leaving large segments of the population feeling unrepresented.
The Left Party’s 10 percent showing provides a small silver lining for the traditional left, suggesting that they have managed to retain a core constituency even as the SPD and BSW struggle. However, their exclusion from potential coalition talks by the CDU/CSU means their influence on actual policy remains limited.
Conclusion of a Political Era?
The September 2026 INSA poll paints a picture of a nation in the midst of a profound political realignment. The systematic loss of votes for the centrist parties that have governed Germany for decades is no longer a temporary fluctuation but appears to be a sustained trend. With 78 percent of the public rejecting the suitability of the Chancellor and the AfD standing as the most popular party in the country, the traditional "firewall" and the "Kenya Coalition" model are being put to their ultimate test.
As the government of Friedrich Merz looks toward the remainder of its term, it faces the daunting task of governing with record-low approval ratings and a junior partner in the SPD that is equally beleaguered. The rise of the AfD to 29 percent suggests that the political center of gravity in Germany has shifted, leaving the established parties to navigate a future where the old rules of coalition-building and public trust may no longer apply.
